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Research & Strategy
The Research & Strategy Division produces analyses of the real estate markets, the economy and capital trends. Its role is to develop the most effective tools and strategies possible for Primonial REIM’s investors.
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FROM HEALTHCARE REAL ESTATE TO THE WELL-BEING SOCIETY : NEW CHALLENGES FOR EUROPE
18/04/2023
real estate Perspectives
SeptembER 2023
SeptembER 2023
Although considerable uncertainty persists in the short term, given the inflationary context and geopolitical tensions, the real estate market offers solid fundamentals. The market has strong sources of support that will drive demand: demographic shifts, with challenges of an ageing population; urbanisation as a vector of economic dynamism and net job creation; and the energy transition task that the real estate industry must tackle.
SMARRT© model
What is the SMARRT© model ?
It is a statistical model to provide the best risk/return balance by: analysing the past data and using the forecast of this data for the next decade in order to offer bespoke investment recommendations to each investor.
It is a statistical model to provide the best risk/return balance by: analysing the past data and using the forecast of this data for the next decade in order to offer bespoke investment recommendations to each investor.
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All our publications
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Market overview
15/09/2023
Although considerable uncertainty persists in the short term, given the inflationary context and
geopolitical tensions, the real estate market offers solid fundamentals. The market has strong sources of support that will drive demand: demographic shifts, with challenges of an ageing
population; urbanisation as a vector of economic dynamism and net job creation; and the energy transition task that the real estate industry must tackle.
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Market overview
07/09/2023
Despite persistent uncertainties, the global economy appears to be holding up better than
expected in 2023. Energy prices are moderate, demand is more evenly distributed, and supply
is stabilizing. This has led to an improvement in global growth forecasts, now reaching 3.0% for
2023 and 2024. However, risks persist for the Eurozone, and the ECB’s monetary policy decisions
will be guided by inflation developments. The ECB’s decisions have already shown positive results
in controlling inflation. Despite disparities, the healthcare, commercial, and hospitality sectors
have performed well in Europe in 2023. Rising interest rates have increased the cost of debt, but
rental yields are supporting overall performance.
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Market overview
16/05/2023
The unexpected resilience of the European economy has led to an improvement in the
business perspectives for 2023. However, the ECB has once again chosen to increase its
interest rates to limit the impact of inflation, which is expected to decrease by the end of
the year. For analysts, controlled inflation will enable a new, more accommodative policy
of interest rates. Regarding real estate, this situation has led investors to be more rigorous
in their allocation choices during the first quarter of 2023. At the same time, we note that
real estate assets that meet ESG criteria and are able to generate performance through
income return, particularly healthcare assets, are becoming attractive to investors
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Market overview
04/05/2023
The issue of energy shortage has (for the time being) disappeared from the public debate, and the bottlenecks in global supply chains, especially between China and Europe, have largely been resolved. This is reflected in a significant increase in imports and exports between Germany and China at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, only weak economic growth of 0.3% is expected for Germany for 2023. The main reasons for this are high energy prices and continued dependence on gas supplies.
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Thematic report
18/04/2023
While healthcare real estate needs to be considered on a European scale to achieve a relevant investment strategy, the sector benefits from solid and encouraging fundamentals resulting from continued demographic pressure and the rapid ageing of the population. Investing in health infrastructure also means offering the possibility to all to enjoy better health and promote well-being, which are essential elements for improving the quality of life in our societies.
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Market overview
10/03/2023
It is generally acknowledged that office markets are comparatively sensitive to economic cycles and that demand for office space is correspondingly strongly influenced by the overall economic situation and especially job creation. At the same time, as is the case for the real estate market as a whole, adjustments take place with a time lag and an economic downturn can rarely be read off directly from real estate fundamentals. Rather, these are "creeping" processes that often first make themselves felt in the form of reduced sales speeds both in leasing and in the transaction business. Even though 2022 closed with slightly positive economic growth and forecasts for the current year are cautiously optimistic, concerns about a recession have not disappeared. But what would a recession mean for the German office property market?
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Market overview
13/02/2023
2022 saw a more pronounced than expected global slowdown, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rising persistence of the Covid-19 pandemic in China. Although the clouds have continued to build up over economic prospects in the early months of 2023, rays of light could start to appear in the second half of this year, with the possibility
of a recovery in 2024 now taking shape. Forecasts for global growth currently stand at 2.7% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024.
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Market overview
02/02/2023
Winter is in full swing and even historically cold December weeks have not led to energy shortages or even blackouts in Germany. There is little to suggest that this situation will change in the coming months. It should therefore be noted that at least part of the energy crisis has been overcome for this winter. However, concerns about a recession have by no means disappeared. The year 2022 still closed with economic growth of 1.7%. For 2023, however, economic
output is expected to decline by 0.6%. The yield on 10-year federal bonds has now risen to around
2.6%. The risk premium for real estate is therefore melting down further. In conjunction with significantly higher construction interest rates, rising real estate yields can therefore be expected in the medium term.
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Market overview
17/10/2022
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Market overview
10/10/2022
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Market overview
10/10/2022
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Market overview
23/08/2022
With the war in Ukraine having triggered a costly crisis, the timing of any end to the conflict remains unclear. The economic repercussions of the crisis will contribute to a marked slowing of global growth in 2022 and will fuel inflation. These factors have led to a fresh downgrade in expectations of global growth to 3% for 2022, from 3.8% at the beginning of the year. Central banks are currently focusing their attention on the tools to deploy in reducing inflation. The economic cost of measures is currently less of a priority for them than the arresting of inflationary
pressures.
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Market overview
27/07/2022
The real estate climate plummeted dramatically in the second quarter of the year. While uncertainty still prevailed at the outbreak of the Ukraine war, this has now given way
to an extremely pessimistic underlying mood. In addition to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the associated concerns about energy shortages, the reasons include inflation,
recession risks and higher interest rates. This multitude of factors has led to a significant decline in the willingness to invest. In many cases, prices are expected to fall, resulting
in only a few transactions. Sellers, in turn, are having to adjust their purchase price expectations in some cases in order to find a buyer for their properties at all at present.
A look at the different asset classes reveals a comparatively homogeneous picture, especially when looking at the changes from May 2022 to July 2022.
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Thematic report
27/06/2022
During the decade from 2012 to 2021, relative international geopolitical stability and quantitative
easing policies generated abundant, low-cost liquidity, which was advantageous for real estate.
However, the emergence of a paradigm shift, most notably in inflation or policy rates, cannot
be ignored when defining a high-performance allocation strategy in the future, given current
uncertainties.
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Market overview
20/05/2022
Just when the world was beginning to emerge from two years of health
crisis, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has shaken up the economic cards,
and the risk of major geopolitical fragmentation of the world has become
real. This division between blocks, if it happens, could have an impact over
a long period of time. For the time being, global growth, which now stands
at 3.6% in 2022, has been revised downwards due to the war in Ukraine
and Western sanctions against Russia. Inflation, tightening monetary
policies, the deteriorating health environment in China that will lead to
new supply-chain difficulties, or the risk of a pandemic resurgence are all
factors that pose significant uncertainties for activity in 2022.
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Market overview
14/02/2022
After a year in 2020 affected by the economic shock of Covid-19, 2021 brought a vigorous economic recovery which created supply-chain bottlenecks. Although the global economic recovery is continuing, 2022 has already brought the first of its own economic challenges: disrupted supply chains, high inflation, record debt. Uncertainties include the impact of the Omicron variant -- which seems to have milder symptoms -- questions over the adoption of the massive ‘Build Back Better’ stimulus programme in the USA, the continued weakness in the Chinese real estate sector and the risks associated with a possible conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
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Market overview
03/02/2022
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Market overview
30/11/2021
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Market overview
29/11/2021
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Market overview
02/08/2021
More than a year after the start of the Covid 19 pandemic, around EUR 115 billion were invested in commercial real estate in the first half of 2021, again confirming the relatively good resilience of this asset class. The dynamics differ both between European countries and between the asset classes we examine in this publication: we’ll take a closer look at office, retail, residential, healthcare and hotels, in all of which we’ll also highlight the outlook the respective asset class.
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Thematic report
29/06/2021
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Market overview
26/05/2021
Infographics

Thematic report
29/03/2021
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Summary report
22/03/2021
The longer the Covid-19 pandemic lasts, the more it transforms our lives, and, in particular, the way we work. Companies have scaled up partial or total remote-working. A revolution in building uses, including remoteworking For the past several years now, the emerging age of access. practises and, in reaction, employers have taken another look at their real-estate policies, and employees at their lifestyles. What should we expect going forward, from the investor’s and asset manager’s viewpoint? How do we distinguish already existing long-term, and now accelerating, office trends from novelties brought on by the pandemic? Will changes be uniform or vary from country to country and sector to sector?
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Daniel While
Head of Research, Strategy and Sustainable Development
After studying local economic development at university, Daniel While began his career as a consultant advising local authorities on the establishment of businesses.
In 2006 he joined the Institut de l’Epargne immobilière et Foncière (real estate and land savings institute) as an analyst, and specialised in the unlisted real estate fund universe (SCPIs and OPCIs (real estate partnerships and investment schemes) for France). He is the co-author of the book “Les OPCI” published by Delmas (September 2008). He came to Primonial REIM in 2011, where he held the post of Head of Development, then became Head of Research & Strategy in 2019.
In 2006 he joined the Institut de l’Epargne immobilière et Foncière (real estate and land savings institute) as an analyst, and specialised in the unlisted real estate fund universe (SCPIs and OPCIs (real estate partnerships and investment schemes) for France). He is the co-author of the book “Les OPCI” published by Delmas (September 2008). He came to Primonial REIM in 2011, where he held the post of Head of Development, then became Head of Research & Strategy in 2019.
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Florian Wenner
Senior Research Manager
Before joining Primonial REIM Germany, Florian worked for five years as a real estate researcher at the market research and analysis company Bulwiengesa. There, he was mainly responsible for the topics of residential markets, operator real estate as well as profitability analyses.
Florian holds a degree in geography and real estate economics (IREBS).
At Primonial REIM Germany, he is responsible for the establishment and further development of a research department for the German real estate market.
Florian holds a degree in geography and real estate economics (IREBS).
At Primonial REIM Germany, he is responsible for the establishment and further development of a research department for the German real estate market.
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Henry-Aurélien Natter
Research and Strategy Director
Henry-Aurélien Natter is responsible for developing the analyses produced by the Research & Strategy Division, which comprehensively cover the real estate markets, the economy and capital trends in France and Europe.
He began his career at Les Echos Etudes (formerly Eurostaf), before moving to C&W (formerly DTZ), and finally BNP PRE, where he acquired solid and varied experience in real estate research, strategy and finance. He has a Master’s in social and economic administration and company management, a Master’s in the management of SMEs and an International Master’s in trade and marketing.
He began his career at Les Echos Etudes (formerly Eurostaf), before moving to C&W (formerly DTZ), and finally BNP PRE, where he acquired solid and varied experience in real estate research, strategy and finance. He has a Master’s in social and economic administration and company management, a Master’s in the management of SMEs and an International Master’s in trade and marketing.
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