The Research & Strategy Division produces analyses of the real estate markets, the economy and capital trends. Its role is to develop the most effective tools and strategies possible for Primonial REIM’s investors.
European Real Estate in Asset Allocations: New World, New Model Webinar Replay, September 13, 2022
Real estate convictions : Europe as of Q2 2022
With the war in Ukraine having triggered a costly crisis, the timing of any end to the conflict remains unclear. The economic repercussions of the crisis will contribute to a marked slowing of global growth in 2022 and will fuel inflation.
EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE
IN ASSET ALLOCATION:
A NEW MODEL
FOR A NEW WORLD
It is a statistical model to provide the best risk/return balance by: analysing the past data and using the forecast of this data for the next decade in order to offer bespoke investment recommendations to each investor.
With the war in Ukraine having triggered a costly crisis, the timing of any end to the conflict remains unclear. The economic repercussions of the crisis will contribute to a marked slowing of global growth in 2022 and will fuel inflation. These factors have led to a fresh downgrade in expectations of global growth to 3% for 2022, from 3.8% at the beginning of the year. Central banks are currently focusing their attention on the tools to deploy in reducing inflation. The economic cost of measures is currently less of a priority for them than the arresting of inflationary
The real estate climate plummeted dramatically in the second quarter of the year. While uncertainty still prevailed at the outbreak of the Ukraine war, this has now given way
to an extremely pessimistic underlying mood. In addition to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the associated concerns about energy shortages, the reasons include inflation,
recession risks and higher interest rates. This multitude of factors has led to a significant decline in the willingness to invest. In many cases, prices are expected to fall, resulting
in only a few transactions. Sellers, in turn, are having to adjust their purchase price expectations in some cases in order to find a buyer for their properties at all at present.
A look at the different asset classes reveals a comparatively homogeneous picture, especially when looking at the changes from May 2022 to July 2022.
European Real Estate in Asset Allocation: A new model for a new world
During the decade from 2012 to 2021, relative international geopolitical stability and quantitative
easing policies generated abundant, low-cost liquidity, which was advantageous for real estate.
However, the emergence of a paradigm shift, most notably in inflation or policy rates, cannot
be ignored when defining a high-performance allocation strategy in the future, given current
Just when the world was beginning to emerge from two years of health
crisis, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has shaken up the economic cards,
and the risk of major geopolitical fragmentation of the world has become
real. This division between blocks, if it happens, could have an impact over
a long period of time. For the time being, global growth, which now stands
at 3.6% in 2022, has been revised downwards due to the war in Ukraine
and Western sanctions against Russia. Inflation, tightening monetary
policies, the deteriorating health environment in China that will lead to
new supply-chain difficulties, or the risk of a pandemic resurgence are all
factors that pose significant uncertainties for activity in 2022.
After a year in 2020 affected by the economic shock of Covid-19, 2021 brought a vigorous economic recovery which created supply-chain bottlenecks. Although the global economic recovery is continuing, 2022 has already brought the first of its own economic challenges: disrupted supply chains, high inflation, record debt. Uncertainties include the impact of the Omicron variant -- which seems to have milder symptoms -- questions over the adoption of the massive ‘Build Back Better’ stimulus programme in the USA, the continued weakness in the Chinese real estate sector and the risks associated with a possible conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
The Covid-19 pandemic has reshuffled the cards in European residential markets, simultaneously triggering disruption whilst strengthening pre-crisis trends in the use of our living spaces.
From working from hometo urban flight, the times were ripe for a renewal of the European residential market.
With €175 billion invested over nine months in 2021 (up 7% year-on-year), the European commercial real estate market has seen a return to growth. Concerned by economic and financial risks, investors have continued to pursue strategies of acquiring well-located assets with solid tenants.
More than a year after the start of the Covid 19 pandemic, around EUR 115 billion were invested in commercial real estate in the first half of 2021, again confirming the relatively good resilience of this asset class. The dynamics differ both between European countries and between the asset classes we examine in this publication: we’ll take a closer look at office, retail, residential, healthcare and hotels, in all of which we’ll also highlight the outlook the respective asset class.
The ongoing pandemic crisis has highlighted the need to expand healthcare real estate infrastructure. Society has become aware of the major role that the healthcare (treatment and infrastructure) sector might play in resolving crises.
With €50bn invested in Q1 2021 , of which €29bn for the eurozone, the European commercial property market is declining due to the caution of investors who have once again opted for flight to quality by focusing on the location of assets and the resilience of tenants.
Life is a cycle and residential property must meet the different expectations of individuals according to their needs at each stage of their lives. Analysis of demographic and real estate dynamics, and Primonial REIM's investment policy.
The post-covid office in Europe: Disruption or acceleration?
The longer the Covid-19 pandemic lasts, the more it transforms our lives, and, in particular, the way we work. Companies have scaled up partial or total remote-working. A revolution in building uses, including remoteworking For the past several years now, the emerging age of access. practises and, in reaction, employers have taken another look at their real-estate policies, and employees at their lifestyles. What should we expect going forward, from the investor’s and asset manager’s viewpoint? How do we distinguish already existing long-term, and now accelerating, office trends from novelties brought on by the pandemic? Will changes be uniform or vary from country to country and sector to sector?
Head of Research, Strategy and Sustainable Development
After studying local economic development at university, Daniel While began his career as a consultant advising local authorities on the establishment of businesses.
In 2006 he joined the Institut de l’Epargne immobilière et Foncière (real estate and land savings institute) as an analyst, and specialised in the unlisted real estate fund universe (SCPIs and OPCIs (real estate partnerships and investment schemes) for France). He is the co-author of the book “Les OPCI” published by Delmas (September 2008). He came to Primonial REIM in 2011, where he held the post of Head of Development, then became Head of Research & Strategy in 2019.
Senior Research Manager
Before joining Primonial REIM Germany, Florian worked for five years as a real estate researcher at the market research and analysis company Bulwiengesa. There, he was mainly responsible for the topics of residential markets, operator real estate as well as profitability analyses.
Florian holds a degree in geography and real estate economics (IREBS).
At Primonial REIM Germany, he is responsible for the establishment and further development of a research department for the German real estate market.
Research and Strategy Director
Henry-Aurélien Natter is responsible for developing the analyses produced by the Research & Strategy Division, which comprehensively cover the real estate markets, the economy and capital trends in France and Europe.
He began his career at Les Echos Etudes (formerly Eurostaf), before moving to C&W (formerly DTZ), and finally BNP PRE, where he acquired solid and varied experience in real estate research, strategy and finance. He has a Master’s in social and economic administration and company management, a Master’s in the management of SMEs and an International Master’s in trade and marketing.
Economist & Statistician
Adrien joined the team in September 2019 as an intern in the Department of Research and Strategy. Today, he works as a full-time statistician-economist after obtaining a Master degree in Economics and Statistics from Pantheon-Assas University. Adrien decided to pursue a career in economics after an exchange program in Sydney where he had the opportunity to mobilise his knowledge in econometrics and work in international groups. He also has a Bachelor degree in mathematics and finance.
As a statistician-economist, Adrien develops innovative statistical tools and assist Henry-Aurelien Natter to write studies about real estate markets on a european level.