France
Germany
Research & Strategy
The Research & Strategy Division produces analyses of the real estate markets, the economy and capital trends. Its role is to develop the most effective tools and strategies possible for Primonial REIM’s investors.
European Real Estate Convictions Q3 2022
11/2022
EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE
IN ASSET ALLOCATION:
A NEW MODEL
FOR A NEW WORLD
06/2022
SMARRT© model
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Real Estate Convictions Q3 2022
The repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have
created substantial challenges for the world economy.
This has increased uncertainty and resulted in repeated cuts of global growth forecasts since the beginning of the conflict, with the latest figure suggesting growth of 2.8% in 2022.
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Germany convictions : Q3 2022 (only in english and german version)
The Research & Strategy Departments´s role is to formalize Primonial REIM´s real estate investment strategies, based on continuous monitoring of the European markets. By nature, real estate is at the cross roads of financial (interestrates), economics (tenants),demographic and social factors.
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Real Estate Perspectives 2022-2026 from Primonial REIM
With a deteriorating economic outlook, against a background of geopolitical tensions and high inflation, Europe faces a growing risk of recession.
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Real Estate Convictions : Europe as of Q2 2022
With the war in Ukraine having triggered a costly crisis, the timing of any end to the conflict remains unclear. The economic repercussions of the crisis will contribute to a marked slowing of global growth in 2022 and will fuel inflation. These factors have led to a fresh downgrade in expectations of global growth to 3% for 2022, from 3.8% at the beginning of the year. Central banks are currently focusing their attention on the tools to deploy in reducing inflation. The economic cost of measures is currently less of a priority for them than the arresting of inflationary
pressures.
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Primonial REIM Germany Convictions as of Q2 2022
The real estate climate plummeted dramatically in the second quarter of the year. While uncertainty still prevailed at the outbreak of the Ukraine war, this has now given way
to an extremely pessimistic underlying mood. In addition to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the associated concerns about energy shortages, the reasons include inflation,
recession risks and higher interest rates. This multitude of factors has led to a significant decline in the willingness to invest. In many cases, prices are expected to fall, resulting
in only a few transactions. Sellers, in turn, are having to adjust their purchase price expectations in some cases in order to find a buyer for their properties at all at present.
A look at the different asset classes reveals a comparatively homogeneous picture, especially when looking at the changes from May 2022 to July 2022.
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European Real Estate in Asset Allocation: A new model for a new world
During the decade from 2012 to 2021, relative international geopolitical stability and quantitative
easing policies generated abundant, low-cost liquidity, which was advantageous for real estate.
However, the emergence of a paradigm shift, most notably in inflation or policy rates, cannot
be ignored when defining a high-performance allocation strategy in the future, given current
uncertainties.
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Real Estate Convictions : Europe as of Q1 2022
Just when the world was beginning to emerge from two years of health
crisis, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has shaken up the economic cards,
and the risk of major geopolitical fragmentation of the world has become
real. This division between blocks, if it happens, could have an impact over
a long period of time. For the time being, global growth, which now stands
at 3.6% in 2022, has been revised downwards due to the war in Ukraine
and Western sanctions against Russia. Inflation, tightening monetary
policies, the deteriorating health environment in China that will lead to
new supply-chain difficulties, or the risk of a pandemic resurgence are all
factors that pose significant uncertainties for activity in 2022.
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Real Estate Convictions: Europe as of Q4 2021
After a year in 2020 affected by the economic shock of Covid-19, 2021 brought a vigorous economic recovery which created supply-chain bottlenecks. Although the global economic recovery is continuing, 2022 has already brought the first of its own economic challenges: disrupted supply chains, high inflation, record debt. Uncertainties include the impact of the Omicron variant -- which seems to have milder symptoms -- questions over the adoption of the massive ‘Build Back Better’ stimulus programme in the USA, the continued weakness in the Chinese real estate sector and the risks associated with a possible conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
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INSIGHTS FOR VALUE - Primonial REIM's Pan-European Outlook
Join Juergen Fenk, Daniel While, Henry Aurelien Natter et Florian Wenner for our first webinar
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EUROPEAN RESIDENTIAL: THE GREAT ACCELERATION
The Covid-19 pandemic has reshuffled the cards in European residential markets, simultaneously triggering disruption whilst strengthening pre-crisis trends in the use of our living spaces.
From working from hometo urban flight, the times were ripe for a renewal of the European residential market.
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Real Estate Convictions as of Q3 2021
With €175 billion invested over nine months in 2021 (up 7% year-on-year), the European commercial real estate market has seen a return to growth. Concerned by economic and financial risks, investors have continued to pursue strategies of acquiring well-located assets with solid tenants.
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Real Estate Convictions: Europe as of Q2 2021
More than a year after the start of the Covid 19 pandemic, around EUR 115 billion were invested in commercial real estate in the first half of 2021, again confirming the relatively good resilience of this asset class. The dynamics differ both between European countries and between the asset classes we examine in this publication: we’ll take a closer look at office, retail, residential, healthcare and hotels, in all of which we’ll also highlight the outlook the respective asset class.
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Healthcare real estate in a post-Covid world
The ongoing pandemic crisis has highlighted the need to expand healthcare real estate infrastructure. Society has become aware of the major role that the healthcare (treatment and infrastructure) sector might play in resolving crises.
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Real Estate Convictions: Europe as of Q1 2021
With €50bn invested in Q1 2021 , of which €29bn for the eurozone, the European commercial property market is declining due to the caution of investors who have once again opted for flight to quality by focusing on the location of assets and the resilience of tenants.
Infographics
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Infographic: The Residential Life Cycle
Life is a cycle and residential property must meet the different expectations of individuals according to their needs at each stage of their lives. Analysis of demographic and real estate dynamics, and Primonial REIM's investment policy.
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The post-covid office in Europe: Disruption or acceleration?
The longer the Covid-19 pandemic lasts, the more it transforms our lives, and, in particular, the way we work. Companies have scaled up partial or total remote-working. A revolution in building uses, including remoteworking For the past several years now, the emerging age of access. practises and, in reaction, employers have taken another look at their real-estate policies, and employees at their lifestyles. What should we expect going forward, from the investor’s and asset manager’s viewpoint? How do we distinguish already existing long-term, and now accelerating, office trends from novelties brought on by the pandemic? Will changes be uniform or vary from country to country and sector to sector?
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