Francia
Germania
Ricerca e strategia
La Divisione Ricerca e strategia produce analisi sul mercato immobiliare, sull’economia e sui mercati finanziari. La sua missione consiste nello sviluppare gli strumenti e le strategie più efficaci per gli investitori di Primonial REIM.
NUOVO
REAL ESTATE CONVICTIONS Q1-2023
FROM HEALTHCARE REAL ESTATE TO THE WELL-BEING SOCIETY : NEW CHALLENGES FOR EUROPE
18/04/2023
Available in English & French
EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE
IN ASSET ALLOCATION:
A NEW MODEL
FOR A NEW WORLD
06/2022
SMARRT© model
Tutte le nostre pubblicazioni
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Real Estate Convictions 2023- Q1
La resilienza imprevista dell'economia europea ha portato a un miglioramento delle prospettive aziendali per il 2023. Tuttavia, la BCE ha scelto nuovamente di aumentare i tassi di interesse per limitare l'impatto dell'inflazione, che si prevede diminuirà entro la fine dell'anno. Per gli analisti, un'inflazione controllata permetterà una nuova politica dei tassi di interesse più accomodante. Riguardo all'immobiliare, questa situazione ha portato gli investitori a essere più rigorosi nelle scelte di allocazione durante il primo trimestre del 2023. Allo stesso tempo, osserviamo che gli immobili che soddisfano i criteri ESG e sono in grado di generare rendimenti attraverso flussi di reddito, in particolare nel settore sanitario, stanno diventando interessanti per gli investitori.
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Germany convictions : Q1 2023 (only in english and german version)
The issue of energy shortage has (for the time being) disappeared from the public debate, and the bottlenecks in global supply chains, especially between China and Europe, have largely been resolved. This is reflected in a significant increase in imports and exports between Germany and China at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, only weak economic growth of 0.3% is expected for Germany for 2023. The main reasons for this are high energy prices and continued dependence on gas supplies.
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FROM HEALTHCARE REAL ESTATE TO THE WELL-BEING SOCIETY: NEW CHALLENGES FOR EUROPE
While healthcare real estate needs to be considered on a European scale to
achieve a relevant investment strategy, the sector benefits from solid and
encouraging fundamentals resulting from continued demographic pressure
and the rapid ageing of the population. Investing in health infrastructure
also means offering the possibility to all to enjoy better health and promote
well-being, which are essential elements for improving the quality of life in
our societies.
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German Office Report - 2023
It is generally acknowledged that office markets are comparatively sensitive to economic cycles and that demand for office space is correspondingly strongly influenced by the overall economic situation and especially job creation. At the same time, as is the case for the real estate market as a whole, adjustments take place with a time lag and an economic downturn can rarely be read off directly from real estate fundamentals. Rather, these are "creeping" processes that often first make themselves felt in the form of reduced sales speeds both in leasing and in the transaction business. Even though 2022 closed with slightly positive economic growth and forecasts for the current year are cautiously optimistic, concerns about a recession have not disappeared. But what would a recession mean for the German office property market?
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Real Estate Convictions Q4 2022
T2022 saw a more pronounced than expected global slowdown, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rising persistence of the Covid-19 pandemic in China. Although the clouds have continued to build up over economic prospects in the early months of 2023, rays of light could start to appear in the second half of this year, with the possibility
of a recovery in 2024 now taking shape. Forecasts for global growth currently stand at 2.7% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024.
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Germany convictions : Q4 2022 (only in english and german version)
Winter is in full swing and even historically cold December weeks have not led to energy shortages or even blackouts in Germany. There is little to suggest that this situation will change in the coming months. It should therefore be noted that at least part of the energy crisis has been overcome for this winter. However, concerns about a recession have by no means disappeared. The year 2022 still closed with economic growth of 1.7%. For 2023, however, economic
output is expected to decline by 0.6%. The yield on 10-year federal bonds has now risen to around
2.6%. The risk premium for real estate is therefore melting down further. In conjunction with significantly higher construction interest rates, rising real estate yields can therefore be expected in the medium term.
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Real Estate Convictions Q3 2022
The repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have
created substantial challenges for the world economy.
This has increased uncertainty and resulted in repeated cuts of global growth forecasts since the beginning of the conflict, with the latest figure suggesting growth of 2.8% in 2022.
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Germany convictions : Q3 2022 (only in english and german version)
The Research & Strategy Departments´s role is to formalize Primonial REIM´s real estate investment strategies, based on continuous monitoring of the European markets. By nature, real estate is at the cross roads of financial (interestrates), economics (tenants),demographic and social factors.
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Real Estate Perspectives 2022-2026 from Primonial REIM
With a deteriorating economic outlook, against a background of geopolitical tensions and high inflation, Europe faces a growing risk of recession.
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Condanne immobiliari : Europa Q2 2022
Sebbene la guerra in Ucraina abbia innescato una crisi costosa, i tempi di uscita da questo conflitto rimangono incerti. Le ripercussioni economiche di questa crisi contribuiranno a un forte rallentamento della crescita globale nel 2022 e alimenteranno l'inflazione. Ciò ha portato a un'ulteriore revisione al ribasso della crescita globale al 3% nel 2022 dal 3,8% di inizio anno. Le banche centrali si stanno ora concentrando sugli strumenti da mettere in atto per ridurre l'inflazione. Il costo economico è ora meno prioritario per loro rispetto all'arresto della spirale inflazionistica.
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Primonial REIM Germany Convictions - Q2 2022
The real estate climate plummeted dramatically in the second quarter of the year. While uncertainty still prevailed at the outbreak of the Ukraine war, this has now given way
to an extremely pessimistic underlying mood. In addition to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the associated concerns about energy shortages, the reasons include inflation,
recession risks and higher interest rates. This multitude of factors has led to a significant decline in the willingness to invest. In many cases, prices are expected to fall, resulting
in only a few transactions. Sellers, in turn, are having to adjust their purchase price expectations in some cases in order to find a buyer for their properties at all at present.
A look at the different asset classes reveals a comparatively homogeneous picture, especially when looking at the changes from May 2022 to July 2022.
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European Real Estate in Asset Allocation: A new model for a new world
During the decade from 2012 to 2021, relative international geopolitical stability and quantitative
easing policies generated abundant, low-cost liquidity, which was advantageous for real estate.
However, the emergence of a paradigm shift, most notably in inflation or policy rates, cannot
be ignored when defining a high-performance allocation strategy in the future, given current
uncertainties.
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Condanne immobiliari : Europa Q1 2022
Proprio quando il mondo stava iniziando a uscire da due anni di crisi sanitaria, l'invasione russa dell'Ucraina ha rimescolato le carte economiche e il rischio di una grande frammentazione geopolitica del mondo sta diventando reale. Questa divisione in blocchi, se si concretizzerà, potrebbe avere un impatto a lungo termine. Per il momento, la crescita globale, che ora si attesta al 3,6% nel 2022, è stata rivista al ribasso a causa della guerra in Ucraina e delle sanzioni occidentali contro la Russia. L'inflazione, l'inasprimento delle politiche monetarie, il deterioramento della situazione sanitaria in Cina, che porterà a nuove difficoltà di approvvigionamento, e il rischio di una recrudescenza delle pandemie sono tutti elementi che pesano sull'attività nel 2022.
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Investimenti immobiliari: Europa nel 4° trimestre 2021
Dopo un anno nel 2020 colpito dallo shock economico del Covid-19, il 2021 ha portato una vigorosa ripresa economica che ha creato strozzature nella catena di approvvigionamento. Anche se la ripresa economica globale sta continuando, il 2022 ha già portato le prime delle sue sfide economiche: catene di approvvigionamento interrotte, alta inflazione, debito record. Le incertezze includono l'impatto della variante Omicron - che sembra avere sintomi più lievi - le domande sull'adozione del massiccio programma di stimolo "Build Back Better" negli USA, la continua debolezza del settore immobiliare cinese e i rischi associati a un possibile conflitto tra Ucraina e Russia.
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INSIGHTS FOR VALUE - Primonial REIM's Pan-European Outlook
Join Juergen Fenk, Daniel While, Henry Aurelien Natter et Florian Wenner for our first webinar
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REUROPEAN RESIDENTIAL: THE GREAT ACCELERATION
The Covid-19 pandemic has reshuffled the cards in European residential markets, simultaneously triggering disruption whilst strengthening pre-crisis trends in the use of our living spaces.
From working from hometo urban flight, the times were ripe for a renewal of the European residential market.
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Real Estate Convictions Q3 2021
With €175 billion invested over nine months in 2021 (up 7% year-on-year), the European commercial real estate market1 has seen a return to growth. Concerned by economic and financial risks, investors have continued to pursue strategies of acquiring well-located assets with solid tenants.
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Convictions Immobilières : L'Europe au 1er trimestre 2021
Avec près de 50 milliards d’euros investis au premier trimestre 2021, dont environ 29 milliards d’euros pour la zone euro, le marché européen de l’immobilier commercial est en baisse en raison de la prudence des investisseurs qui ont à nouveau opté pour le « flight to quality » en privilégiant la localisation des actifs et la résilience des locataires.
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Bureau post-covid : disruption ou accélération ?
Les entreprises ont généralisé la pratique du télétravail partiel ou total. Cette nouvelle expérience amène les employeurs à reconsidérer leur politique immobilière, et les salariés à reconsidérer leurs habitudes de vie.
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Convictions Immobilières : L'Europe au 2ème trimestre 2021
Alors que la pandémie a fait plus de 4 millions de morts en 18 mois dans le monde, le variant Delta a fortement progressé sur l’ensemble de la planète en raison de sa grande contagiosité. Les pays/régions ayant une couverture vaccinale trop faible pourraient être rapidement contraints de mettre en place de nouvelles mesures de restriction faisant peser des risques importants sur la reprise.
Infografica
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Infographie : le parcours résidentiel durant le cycle de vie
La vie est un cycle et le résidentiel doit répondre aux différentes attentes des individus selon leurs besoins à chaque moment de leur existence. Analyse des dynamiques démographiques et immobilières, et politique d'investissement de Primonial REIM.
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L’immobilier de santé dans un monde post-Covid
La crise pandémique que nous traversons a mis en évidence la nécessité d'une expansion des infrastructures immobilières de santé. La société a pris conscience du rôle majeur que le secteur de la santé (traitements et infrastructures) pouvait jouer pour trouver une sortie de crise.
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